Posted by & filed under Thoughts on stock.

Federal Reserve Chair Woman Yellen said that FOMC will increase the interest rate this year for sure. That had big impact on dollar and so market and commodities (Gold , Oil ,and etc …) are down. They are inversely correlated. When dollar goes up , the market and the commodities go down. And when dollar goes down, the stock market and the commodities are up.

That’s why everybody is so nervous about the interest rate. People are afraid that the interest rate hike will put an end to the bull market. Any little positive news or comments from Chairwoman Yellen directly affect the market these days.

One thing I am bit curious is that the market did not react much last Friday when Yellen mentioned about the interest last week. It’s probably because it was right before the Memorial day holiday and many have already left for the vacation.

I decided to close my few positions today. I wasn’t doing well anyway. I can only think that this trend will stay for few more days at least.

Here is the S&P 500 index technical indicators CCI, Full STO, and RSI. Those technical indicators are running to the bottom.

If you compare now to the period between first two weeks of March, the patter looks similar but then the dollar directly influenced the trend.

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Here is the UUP (dollar index fund ) chart. It suddenly spiked during the first two weeks of March directly affected the S&P 500. And it is doing the similar pattern now.

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I am not sure how long this bullish Dollar trend will stay but we have several major economic reports coming out next week including the employment report. If those reports are better than the expectation, it’s for sure that the dollar will be strengthened more. Which will negatively impact the financial stock market.

So be careful out there. You can just wait for now until all the technical indicators hit the bottom and bounce back. There are not many opportunities at this time. I strongly recommend you to wait for now.

Thank you for visiting my site.

Posted by & filed under Uncategorized.

Let me provide quick guide on how to read the RSI7 table showing on the home page. Basically it is showing the current RSI7 values of all the managed stock symbols which is 822 at this time. I selected the initial stock symbol list from S&P 500 and DOW listed companies since I strongly believe that you should only be looking for higher value companies when it comes to investment. If you want to add a symbol, let us know. We will review and add it if it is mid to large CAP company.

Now if you look at the top left corner menus, there are Total, Distribution, Sell, Accumulation buttons. Each button has the number showing in a circle next which represents the number of stock symbols with the corresponding alert signal on.

In general, when the RSI is over 70, it is considered over-bought and when it goes below 70, it is considered possible sell signal. Like wise, when RSI is below 30, it is considered over-sold and when it goes over 30 , it is considered possible buy signal.

  • Distribution: All Monthly, Weekly, and Daily RSI7 values are over 70
  • Sell: Previously the stock symbol was on Distribution mode and Daily RSI7 went down below 70 cross line. This could be a possible Sell signal
  • Accumulation: All Monthly, Weekly, and Daily RSI7 values are below 30
  • Buy: Previously the stock symbol was on Accumulation mode then Daily RSI7 went up over 30 cross line. This could be a possible Buy signal
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On the top right corner, there is the search input field that you can search the particular stock symbols. You can use comma to type in multiple stock symbols. (Example: AAPL, MSFT, INTC) You can also use company name to search the symbol. However, you can only search one company name at a time.
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There are buttons in the bottom section that are listed based on the sectors. You can browse the stocks based on each sector. And the Distribution, Sell, Accumulation, Buy will also work and show the result within the selected sector’s stock symbols.

Now let me go through the columns and explain what each column is for.

  • Date : The date of the stock price.
  • Symbol: Company Stock Market Symbol.
  • Price : The end of day price.
  • Change: Actual changed amount compared to the previous market opening day’s end of day price
  • Change%: The percentage of the price change to the previous market opening day’s end of day price.
  • 60days%: The percentage of the price change over the last 60 days (Market Opening days) . Therefore 60 days is about 3 months ago.
  • RSI7D: Daily RSI over last 7 daily prices.
  • RSI7W: Weekly RSI over last 7 weekly prices.
  • RSI7M: Monthly RSI over last 7 monthly prices.
  • Status: Null, Distribution, Sell, Accumulation, and Buy.
  • T/Days: Number of the days that have been passed since the Buy or Sell signal was triggered.
  • T/Ch%: The percentage of the price change since the Buy or Sell signal was triggered.
  • A/D: Number of the days that have been passed since the Accumulation or Distribution was triggered (Before the Buy or Sell signal was triggered)
  • Score: This is something I came up with . There are several technical indicators that are checked everyday and the positive and negative indicators are added all up and shown. Higher number is good. Lower number is bad. I will explain more in the up coming blog article.
  • MACD-T : This is something I came up with . It tries to detect when the MACD line tries to hit the bottom and rising & crossing over the MACD signal line. The values ranges are from -5 (falling) to 5 (rising). I designed to early detect the MACD rising movement . For the bullish signal, usually 3 occurs then few days later 4 occurs as the MACD crosses over the signal line. However, it is possible the rising pattern fails and headed lower after showing 3 .
  • Volume%: This is daily volume’s percentage compared to the 50 days average. If you see more than 100, you should be monitor closely. Large institutions or investors are buying or selling the stock. It could definitely affect the trend of the future stock prices.
  • RS: Relative Strength. The percentage of price change over 52 weeks are compared to the change of S&P 500 index over the same period. Rising RS means, the stock is constantly doing better than S&P 500 .

 

If you have any questions, let me know.

 

Thank you

 

Posted by & filed under Thoughts on stock, Uncategorized.

The situation seemed really bad for the Apple . Investors were thinking that Apple did not have enough innovative products to continue their high earnings. The competition from Samsung was strong.  Investors were not sure on Tim Cook either. And the RSI7 kept falling and failling and all monthly, weekly , and daily RSI7 fell below 30. Then suddenlym we had the Buy signal on July 1st, 2013 and there were confirmation from MACD , MFI, and CMF. Then the prices kept moving up and up even with the small resistance during the first quarter of 2014. But now it’s more than 2 times higher than the price at the Buy signal which was about $60 and now about $129 (May 15, 2015) . Also note that the Relative Strength compared to S&P 500 52 weeks moving average (RS) indicator keep increasing during that time. If this value is greater than 0 , the stock is doing better than S&P 500 , and if RS is below 0 , the stock is doing worse than S&P 500.

You see , when I think of it again, it is very hard to see Monthly RSI7 below 30 for such a big innovative company.  It was absolutely a good buying opportunity that rarely occurs. So RSI7 works well if the signal rarely occurs and if the stock is a large high valued company. Unfortunately, I didn’t own AAPL even I had the signal. Next time, I will be more keen on these buy alerts.

 

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