I see that these days oils and raw materials are in the spot light and prices are getting higher everyday. Someone even predicts the price will hit $75. It is surely possible and may affect oil related stocks to go upside way. However, I feel like this is not the time for oil stocks now. I think we missed the ride already. I think the oil prices go up during the summer days and go down during the fall and winter. It has been like that in the past.

But then with the blooming stock market, where should I focus ?

I just visited the Mr.Bill Cara’s blog and He thinks something big is coming for Financials.

The Financials (XLF +1.42%) are coiling, getting ready for a large move – one way or the other

What do you think?

That looks like a good spamming strategy since when the market is bull, investors are more likely willing to buy stocks and Spam emails have a better chance for them to look at the emails.

So I was happy that I haven’t received any stock related spams for a while since the market is so terrible these days. But you know what? I received more than 10 stock spams today! One of the subject says ‘The bull is back’.

Maybe this is a sign of BULL coming back alive ! LOL!

I just read this blog and summerize my understandings. http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

Here is one of the ways to predict the future.

You have read something like “Fed injected XX billion into the market , blah blah”. The slosh report shows how much Fed temporary short term loan known as TOMO(Temporary Open Market Operations) is in the market. The amount Fed accepted is interpreted as the amount fed injected into the market.

The pink colored bars indicates the daily Fed accepted /Granted loan amount.

But thing is that this loan must be returned someday. (Shown as Grey Bars in the graph)And I can think that the day when this return amount is high, the banks will have to sell their equities therfore the market will be downward based on the assumtion that the large portion of the slosh is currently in the equity market.

Then according to the below graph, it is most likely that the stock market be down tomorrow. But still Maybe I am wrong, but I can’t wait to see the end of the tomorrow.

Slosh Report
Slosh Report help

Slosh Report Data Source (http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm)

So here is some past history where its rsi7 values were below 30s.

And here is the graph from finance.google.com.

The red circle that I marked indicates the period where the stock was at the lowest point in the last year and they do match with the above RSI7 history (8/9 ~ 8/14).

Also , note that the stock was in the price range of $70 during the year 2005.

Many people forecast grim housing market so I believe it would be better to watch the stock for a while.