Stock Quote

Dow Jones Industrial

NASDAQ Composite

S&P 500

Let us repeat the refrain; early morning weakness encourages bargain hunting, the shallow correction never falling far enough to allow traders to take long positions at comfortable (major support) levels, so every day the frustrated under-invested money managers chase stocks – buying them from Goldman Sachs — not because they think prices represent value, but only because prices are moving higher. As prices fail once again to follow through on the downside, the shorts are tripping over themselves to cover upside exposure, adding further fuel to the fire, and presto, a rally is born.

Thursday was déjà vu all over again; profit taking on Citigroup (C -5.0%) and Goldman (GS –1.9%) drove futures lower on the opening; however, the selling quickly abated, and buyers methodically pushed prices back into the black by the close (S&P +0.42%).

…

While volume remains tepid, momentum divergences remain plentiful, and many stocks are in distribution zones, the path of least resistance remains higher. We may not agree with the persistence of the rally or whether prices represent good value at these lofty levels, but until stocks actually begin to trace out a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, we have to let the rally run its course.

So basically , we need to stay calm but closely monitor the market. This is surely not the time for buy-and-forget-it type of the long-term investment.

Here is the link. http://caracommunity.com/report/2009-10-16

• Straight Talk “All You Need” 30-day Plan that includes the following for only $30 a month:
  • 1,000 minutes, 1,000 texts and 30MB of mobile web access
  • Nationwide coverage
  • 411 Information calls at no extra charge
• Straight Talk’s Unlimited 30-day Plan that includes the following for $45 a month
• Unlimited minutes, unlimited text and unlimited mobile web access
• Nationwide coverage
• Unlimited 411 Information calls at no extra charge

I am currently with AT&T and have the $40 plan which about $46 after TAX. But it doesn’t include any texting or Internet. I am definitely interested . On average, I use about 500 hundred min so I can take that $30 plan that will be about $10 savings plus additional Internet services that I wanted to try.

But also with about the same price, I can have unlimited access for both voice and data!! That’s fantastic! I can’t wait the current contract to be expired.

Here is the link. Walmart Launches Wireless Solution

Now the market is about to hit the 10,000 Dow point. And I am somewhat glad that I stayed in even though I haven’t benefited much since most of the investment was bought before the great stock market fall in the last October.

I read today from caracommunity.com that when Dollar is down, market is up. And when the Dollar is up , the market is down. And he provided this link to stockchart.com (http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?$DJW,$USD)

The graphs in fact shows the opposite trend between Dollar and stocks. If so, we can predict the market’s future using the Dollar’s pricing trend. But then how do I know where the Dollar will move to , up or down?

Mr. Bill Cara’s speculation is that the Dallar will eventually turn to upside trend and then there will be bears roaming again.

Next week , there will be lots of corporate earning reports for 3rd quarter. And it is expected that many will be positive reports.

Have a great weekend.

So I am kind of in the dilemma everyday whether to jump in the market or not. But I decided to hold once again. But, I will have to fight with myself not to jump in.

Here is a good reading from BillCara.com Blog.

Markets cheered the Bank of England decision and the relatively upbeat US unemployment report, bourses around the world rallying briskly, as traders concluded the worst of the recession is behind us. Regardless of your market opinion, there was plenty to support your argument.

What to like about the market:
• Since the March low the markets have been making higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend.
• Solid leadership with technology leading the initial advance, industrial and financials taking the baton, handing off to consumer discretionary.
• Impressive breadth with the advance decline line consistently registering higher highs.
• The market has done nothing wrong, Bears having fumbled the ball each time they had a chance to send the market cascading lower.
• Companies have had little trouble beating lowered expectations
• Interest rates have remained low, with fixed income securities providing little competition for investor funds.
• The government has helped banks rebuild their balance sheets, keeping borrowing costs for financial institutions very low, allowing them to make money on the interest rate spreads.
• Lots of liquidity is sloshing around the system looking for a home, some of which is finding its way into equity markets.

Reasons to expect an imminent decline:
• The rate of deterioration may be slowing, but fundamentals are not conducive to a sustainable recovery.
• Climax runs do not end well; healthy markets take two steps forward, one step back a natural rhythm re-energizing the prevailing trend over time.
• The S&P (+1.34%) has reached the .382 retracement of the Bear market, a natural place for a pullback or termination of trend.
• Put call ratios show excessive optimism, as do assorted polls of investor sentiment.
• The Bear market low of 666 was the lowest low seen for many years; an up, down up sequence is needed to prove a bottom is in. Thus far only an up leg has been recorded.
• Goldman Sachs (GS –1.88%) a leader hit a yearly high yesterday, reversed sharply, and finished extremely weak today. When early leaders fail to participate in a trend, the move is near a reversal.
• Semiconductors (SMH –0.24%) were weak again today. Another stalwart rolling over.

Trading for a living is a humbling occupation; even the best traders make many mistakes each and every day. We have obviously been too cautious the past few weeks having missed out on several opportunities. Note to self-it’s going to happen again, just part of the game, no matter how skilled or prepared you are. Knowing it is part of the game really doesn’t make it any easier since competitive people want to succeed, and aren’t happy under-achieving.

I just quickly checked pre market prices for both Yahoo (YHOO) and Microsoft(MSFT).
YHOO dropped about 7% but MSFT was up about 1.20% .

I was watching MSFT for the past few days to get in, but I am not sure if this is the right time.
Also the Chinese Stock market was down about 5% last night, so I feel the stock market probably tends to go down in general , especially with current overbought market condition.

Yesterday (7/28) MSFT RSI7 values

1. Daily:43.81
2. Weekly:59.33
3. Monthly:58.16

Maybe I should just watch the market for this week.

RSI7 is used to alert buy opportunity,but also used to sell the stock at the right time.

The Distribution Zone is where the RSI-7 has lifted above 70, and the Sell Alert is where those RSI’s fall back below 70.

I don’t know but it seems that the imminent quick drop is most likely to occur. Also many analysts believes that the another drop will come into September before jumping back in 2010.

I have came across Tim Knight’s Trading Rules blog and loved it so I have quotes it today’s blog.

Stops – a stop price must be in place at all times for all positions.

Exits – the only acceptable exit is either being stopped out of a position or reaching a target price which has a clear technical rationale, and even in cases of the latter, partial exits are preferable to outright closes.

Trend – the trend of the market is defined by the 13-week EWA and 52-week EWA of the $SPX. Based on the relative position of the 13-week EWA, the market is either Up-Trending (13-week EWA above the 52-week) or Down-Trending, and no more than 20% of the value of all your positions may be positioned against that trend at any one time.

Freshness – positions should be regularly updated for the sake of updated stops.

Opening Bell – no new positions should be initiated in the first 30 minutes of any trading session. There are an astonishing number of pre-opening orders, and in my experience, I have found it better to let all the open bell excitement die away before getting into any new positions.

Emotional Awareness – use emotional awareness to your advantage, understanding fear often accompanies reversals in your favor and hubris often accompanies reversals against your positions. My state of mind, when trading, will be carefree and fearless, and my total focus will be technical considerations and I will only trade what I see.

Sizing – position sizing must be consistent among instrument types irrespective of anticipated opportunity.

The answer is simple . You must be active and closely monitor your stocks.

Time Knightis a active commentor in Cara Community Com. He is an software developer and active trader with professional insights and knowledge in stock trading.

I believe in long position, but in this recent ride, I am kind of worried. I bet other traders feel the same way. And eventually that feeling will lead the market bottom tomorrow.

Today’s RSI7 monthly weekly and daily for MICC are 59.8 , 77.5, and 92.2.

I spent some time what to do whether to sell MICC or not during the after hours , but decided not to. After all, I believe in long term investment and I believe MICC is a good company to invest in.

See the comments from billcara community blog

Millicom Q2 earnings were down from $1.22 to $1.05 2Q2008 and down -12.5% over the consensus estimate of $1.20. The stock surged on more than double the average daily trading volume. The good news, apparently, is that total mobile subscribers increased +25% Y/Y to 30.8 million, and that operating free cash flow will be in the mid teens this year despite bad economic conditions. The Daily-Weekly RSI-7 is now a very risky 91.5 and 83.5, respectively.
http://tinyurl.com/mw42ja

Suddenly the price dropped and kept dropping for the last few days against the market’s Upward trend.

I totally agree with that the general public sentiment on the portable device has been moved to more sophisticated devices such as iPhone. Nokia is slowly dying.

Jul 21, 2009 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) — MS | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating — 21 July 2009 – Morgan Stanley downgraded the recommendation on Finnish handset maker Nokia Oyj (HEL:NOK1V) to “underweight” from “overweight” and slashed the share price target to EUR8.20 from EUR13.50.

The broker considers that competition will put Nokia’s margins under pressure and that the transformation into a service-oriented company had a bad start and will take time.

On Monday, shares in Nokia closed at EUR9.27, down 0.96% on the day, on the OMX Nordic Exchange in Helsinki.

Here is another interesting post – chart on Previous Cellphones IPhone 3G buyers.